Did we say $800,000,000,000? We meant $3,270,000,000,000.

I mean, I am a generally skeptical sort. An empiricist, if you will, though I generally avoid -ist's and -ism's.

Things are true only after they've turned out to be so, and not because we really believe they should. Prediction is interesting and useful, but it's no substitute for actual outcomes. (Can you tell I've read The Black Swan?)

So my question to dear readers is, do you believe what you are being told about the stimulus? For example, do you believe it's a one-time spending boost? Do you believe it's $800b?

In actuality, the cost of the bill is around $3.2 trillion. You (we) have been low-balled, which is a nice way of saying bullshi**ed. Just the interest alone is around $750b.

Here's what it looks like in terms of debt:

From WSJ

Observant folks might recognize that those numbers look a lot like Japan during its lost decade.

The US might recover despite the stimulus, in the way that one might recover from a gunshot wound. But we'll be a lot poorer. More likely is stagnation (as the $$ incentive of starting a business or hiring employees has been reduced) with inflation (there are twice as many dollars as there used to be, chasing the same amount of wealth).

I am both a progressive and a liberal  -- I just take those words at their literal meaning instead of their political meaning. I see "progress" in the creation of new, for-profit medicines that would not have existed otherwise. I see liberation in Wal-Mart, which helps to make most people's physical needs easily satisfied.

These are the sorts of things that will come to an end due to our new indebtedness. The ones who will get by are those who are paid in tax money, and the super-rich. You'll start to notice they are the same people. And they are the ones with the political power...notice a pattern?

---

Update: more and smarter from Megan McArdle.

Comments

[Josh Webb]

We are the Patriotic Conservatives of America[PCA]. I am the Vice President and my friend Spencer Roche is the President. We started this organization just a few days after Obama was sworn in. In no way are we here to bash the President on our beliefs. We are here to state the opinions of Conservative America as voices to represent Conservatives nationwide. Our goals are to have Conserative politicians of both sides of the isle to get to Washington in 2010 and 2012 by campaigning and hopefully donating to get them in office to represent the ideology of Conservatism. Please visit our website: www.pcofamerica.com It is still in progress so bear with us. We don't have much on it yet. We just started today, but if you really want to get involved, and you have a myspace, go add us at www.myspace.com/patriotic_conservatives

If you have any questions you can email me at pca_vp@yahoo.com or our president Spencer Roche at pca_pres.roche@yahoo.com

God Bless and help spread the word and add us on myspace and get your Conservative friends to add us on myspace.

[moncler outlet]

Government spending is poverty. It is the destruction of wealth. Imagine a world of hungry people.