A thought I've had for a while re: global warming is that I would like to see a betting market like Intrade offer the ability to wager on climate outcomes. These sites allow a person to bet on everything from TV shows like American Idol, to political races, to sports. Such a market would offer a microcosm of rational resource allocation.
Many are suggesting that we need to spend vast sums to combat global warming, in exchange for outcomes that are far from certain -- in other words, to make a large bet with other people's money. My reaction is: let's offer people the opportunity to put their own money on the line to find out what they really think.
For example, if you believe estimates about rising sea levels, would you be willing to bet on a certain sea level in a given place for, say, 2011? If one's confidence in the predictions is high, it's free money. Right?
Well, it appears someone is doing it:
The odds that Virginia's Cape Henry will be under water by 2015 _ 200-to-1 at BetUs.com. Its odds for Cape Hatteras flooding by the same date _ 300-to-1. [...]
About 3,000 placed bets during the first three days on online booking, said Reed Richards, a spokesman for BetUs.com.
Most gamblers on the site have put down money that Manhattan will be submerged before New Year's Eve 2011.
"Don't ask me why," Richards said.
It sounds like the bets offered are for extreme outcomes which no scientist is actually predicting. But it's a start. A market for more mainstream predictions, based on IPCC reports for example, would be much more informative.
If one thinks that climate predictions are fait accompli, and that the debate is over, certainly one would jump at the chance to win an easy bet with their own money. Right?
h/t The Corner
Government spending is poverty. It is the destruction of wealth. Imagine a world of hungry people.
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